[DRI M1-Nov-2019] BPS: October 2019 inflation rate reaches 0.02% Mom

04 November 2019

Research

The latest publications and economic events have colored the movement of regional and domestic markets in the past week. Dri summarizes a number of main points that are considered to have influenced market performance, as follows last week, the issuer`s issuer was still a central and regional market movement theme. In addition, market participants looked at the latest developments in monetary policies of a number of central banks, indicators of PMI Negara Partner manufacturing, and GDP data and US employment. The latest developments in Brexit showed that the British will hold an election in December for the first time since 1923 in an effort to break Brexit`s deadlock. MPs from various parties agreed to hold a national poll on December 12, 2019. Regarding the US trade war China, the US Department of Trade said he would consider the extension of the exception of import tariff implementation from China for a number of goods worth USD 34 billion. This plan adds a positive signal to achieve the first phase of trade agreements between the two countries. From domestic, BPS announced the October inflation rate which was recorded at 0.02% Mom, or annually stable at 3.13% yoy. This monthly inflationary pressure is lower than the market consensus by 0.17% Mom, driven by the decline to level 47.7 from the level of 49.1 in the previous buian. The PMI level is below the 50th level in the last 4 months, indicating that Indonesia`s manufacturing contractions still occur, following the decline in new orders, export sales, and industrial labor absorption. From the Chinese economy, PMI manufacturing indicators published by the government plummeted to 49.3 in Buian October from the level of 49.8 in the previous month. The PMI level below 50 has survived over the past 6 months, which indicates the contraction of the manufacturing sector, as the weakening of new orders, export requests and labor absorption. The same thing was also seen in the PMI non -manufacturing indicator which dropped from the level of 53.7 to the level of 52.8. The slowing of service sector activities was also driven sluggish new orders received by the company, new export demand, and employment absorption. Other Chinese Manufacturing Indicators-Caixin Manufacturing PMI increased in October 2019 to 51.7 from the level of 51.4. Chinese medium manufacturing expansion is encouraged to improve new orders received by the manufacturer, and recovered export demand. In the Japanese economy, the indicator of PMI Bank Manufacturing Bank is decreased from 48.9 to 48.4 in October 2019. The contraction of the Japanese manufacturing sector that survives Over the past 6 months, due to decreased demand for new exports, new orders and company production outputs. Japanese industry output increased 1.4% mom in September, following a decline of 1.2% Mom in the previous month. Production output increased in the group of production machine products, transportation equipment and electricity machinery. Japanese consumer belief index in October moved to improve, up to 36.2 from the level of 35.6 in September. The improvement of consumer confidence is encouraged to increase the plan to purchase durable goods, employment, and revenue growth. In the monetary sector, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains short -term benchmark interest at the minus level of 0.1 percent at the October 2019 meeting. Boj holds the target yields For 10 -year government bonds in the zero percent range. The purchase value of government bonds is estimated to be stable at 80 trillion yen a year, as well as the purchase of ETFS and Japan Reits assets increased to 6 trillion yen and 90 billion yen a year. From the US economy, GDP as Q3 2019 grew 2.0% yoy, slowing compared to Q2 2019 ( +2.3 % yoy) and Q3 2018 (+3.1 % yoy). Comparison with the performance of Q3 2019, household spending growth (+2.5% yoy), investment (+0.2% yoy), exports (+0.1% yoy), and imports (+0.8% yoy) slowed down , while the performance of government spending has improved (+2.3% yoy). The Fed decreased the FFR benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 1.50-1.75 percent at the October 2019 meeting. US economy going forward. The Fed also gave a signal that the decline this time was the last year. The US consumer confidence published by The Conference Board in October declined to 125.9 from the previous level of 126.3. This decline was driven by US consumer concerns about business prospects and employment in the future. The growth of US people`s personal income slowed down from 0.5% Mom to 0.3% Mom in September 2019. While personal spending (personal spending) tends to grow stagnant at 0.2% mom. In the labor sector, the claim of US unemployment allowance (as of October 26, 2019) rose 5 thousand applications to 218 thousand applications. The average 4 weekly decreased 500 applications to 214,750 applications. ADP National Employment Report shows the absorption of US private labor in September reaching 125 thousand positions (vs 93 thousand in August 2019). The service sector absorbs additional labor up to 138 thousand positions, while the manufacturing sector reduces 13 thousand labor positions. The preparation of nonfarm payrolls (nonfarm payrolls) in October rose 128 thousand positions (vs 89 thousand expectations), following an additional 180 thousand position in the previous month. The increase in labor absorption occurs in the food and beverage service sector, social assistance, and financial services. While the manufacturing sector recorded still declined. The average revenue per hour obtained by the workforce increased 0.2% Mom, after flat in the previous month. The October unemployment rate rose from 3.5 percent to 3.6 percent. The ISM Manufacturing PMI indicator moved to improve in October to 48.3 from the level of 47.8 in September. US manufacturing activities began to show improvements even though they were still contracting, the recovery of new orders received by the manufacturer, new export demand, and labor absorption. In the US housing sector, home sales contracts rose 3.9% yoy in September 2019, higher than market expectations of 1.4%. This increase is supported by a relatively low mortgage rate. Sunday II November 2019 Some economic indicators that need to be observed next week include: USA: Durable Goods Orders, Factory Orders, Jolts Job Openings, Weekly Unemployment Allowance Claims Japan: Core Machinery Orders, Lei, Cei EU: Markit PMI, Retail Sales China: export-import, inflation rate, money supply Indonesia: GDP Q3 2019, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Bop Source: Danareksa Research Institute Photo by Shot by Cerqueira On Unssplash