Week I December 2019 Latest Publisher and Economic Events Color the movement of regional and domestic markets in the past week. Dri summarizes a number of main points that are considered to affect market performance, as follows negative centers dominate the movement of domestic and regional exchanges last week. The absence of concrete progress in the US-China trade negotiations made the selling action dominating the market. In the midst of the lack of positive market triggers, the trend weakened was clearly visible in the performance of regional stock indexes, especially CSPI. Investor`s concerns are increasingly culminating, following the decision of the US government which passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Law. The US decision is considered to be able to hamper the achievement of the first stage of trade agreement with China. From domestic, the consumer confidence index (IKK) published by Danareksa was recorded at the level of 98.8 in November 2019, or slightly increased from the level of 97.7 in the previous month. Consumer confidence in current economic conditions, and employment has increased, as consumer concerns of the increase in food prices, and LPG in a number of regions. The consumer purchasing plan moves stable to 204.6 (+10.9% yoy). In line with IKK, the Consumer Trust Index of the Government (IKKP) was also hoisted to the level of 114.9 (+0.7% Mom), following a 0.9% decline in the previous month. The majority of households are optimistic about the ability of the government to carry out their duties and responsibilities. From the Japanese economy, the current economic indicators have risen from 99.0 to the level of 101.1, or the highest in the last 4 bury. While the indicator of Japan -Li`s economic prospects has survived at the level of 91.9, or the lowest level since November 2009. The impact of a prolonged trade war and the decline in domestic consumer beliefs brings Japanese economic prospects. 4.4% Yoy Consensus) in October Buian. Had soared 9.2% in the previous month, consumer spending declined after the new sales tax applies. Sales correction occurs in groups of general consumer products, and motorized vehicles. Effective October 1, 2019, sales tax in Japan increased from 8% to 10%, in an effort to overcome high government debt problems. This increase is feared to make the Japanese economy depressed due to slowing the growth of the main engine consumption of household consumption, amidst the sluggish exports and manufacturing production. Japanese industry output in October Buian decreased 4.2% Mom (vs -2.1% Mom), following an increase of 1.7 % mom in the previous month. Annually, industrial output recorded 7.4% lower (vs+1.3% yoy in the previous month). The decrease in production output occurs in engine products, motorized vehicles. Japanese consumer trust in 38.7 in November 2019 from the level of 36.2 in the previous month, and higher than market expectations of 35.4. Consumer Assessment of Economic Conditions, Encouraged to Increase Plans for Purchasing Durable Goods, Revenue Growth, and Labor Uppertakes. Of the Chinese Economy, PMI-NBS Manufacturing Manufacturing Indicators are officially issued by the government in November 2019 recorded significantly up to the level of 50.2 from the previous month from the previous month , 49.3. The November PMI level has been an indication of the first Chinese manufacturing expansion since April 2019, driven by the growth of new orders and the purchasing activities of the manufacturer. Whereas export sales and labor absorption are still declining. The economic economy that slows affects the financial performance of large industries. Profits earned by large industrial companies throughout the last 10 bury dropped 2.9% yoy to CNY 5.02 trillion (vs -2.1% Yoy Period Jan Sept`19). As many as 11 sectors reported a decrease in profit, from 41 industries surveyed. From the US economy, GDP as Q3 2019 (2nd estimate) grew 2.1% yoy, slowing compared to Q2 2019 (+2.3% yoy) and Q3 2018 ( +3.1% yoy). Comparison with Q3 2018 performance, household expenditure growth (+2.5% yoy), investment (+0.6% yoy), exports (+0.2% yoy), and imports (+0.9% yoy) slowed down , while the performance of government spending is recorded to grow flat (+2.2% yoy). In the consumer sector, consumer spending in October 2019 grew 0.3% Mom, higher than the previous month of 0.2% Mom, and in line with market expectations. As for personal income, it tends to not experience growth (vs 0.3% Mom expectations). Consumer confidence index (IKK) published by The Conference Board in November 2019 dropped to 125.5 from the October level 126.1. Household optimism for business conditions and employment is currently declining, but they still believe in better US economic prospects in the short term. In the housing sector, the sale of new landed houses in the US dropped 0.7% Mom to 733 thousand units (sa annual rate) in Buian October 2019, following the growth of 4.5% in the previous month. On the side of the performance of foreign trade, the trade balance deficit The US in October reached USD 66.5 billion (vs. deficit of USD 71.3 billion consensus), narrowed from the previous month`s deficit of USD 70.5 billion. US export value reached USD 135.3 billion (-0.66% Mom) and imports were recorded at USD 201.8 billion (-2.42% Mom). In the US manufacturing sector, orders for durable goods (durable goods order) The US manufacturer grew 0.6% Mom (vs -0.8% Mom consensus) in October 2019, following a 1.4% Mom decline in the previous month. The increase in demand occurred in the group of transportation equipment, metal, computer and electronic products, as well as machinery. In the US labor sector, claims of weekly unemployment allowances (as of November 23, 2019) decreased by 15 thousand applications to 213 thousand applications. The average 4 weekly reaches 219,750 applications, or 1,500 applications lower. Week II December 2019 Some economic indicators that need to be examined next week include: ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment Report, Average Hourly Earnings, Claims of Weekly Unemployment Allowances, Factory Orders Japan: GDP Q3 2019, Trade Balance China: Caixin PMI, Trade Balance Eu: Markit PMI, Retail Sales, GDP Q3 2019 Indonesia: inflation rate, foreign exchange reserves Source: Danareksa Research Institute Photo by Uray Zulfikar On Unssplash