DRI: Indonesia`s foreign exchange reserves in April 2020 rose to USD 127.880 billion

11 May 2020

Research

Week I May 2020 Latest Publisher and Economic Events Color the movement of regional and domestic markets in the past week. Dri summarizes a number of main points that are considered to affect market performance, as follows: Indonesian economy Indonesia`s economic growth in Q1 2020 dropped to 2.97% yoy, lower when compared to Q1 2019 which was able to grow by 5.07% yoy. Economic growth in Q1 2020 is the lowest economic growth since Q1 2001. Quarterly in Q1 2020 contracted economic growth of -2.41% Qoq. This happened because of the start of the implementation of the PSBB policy in mid -April so that the impact on economic growth had been felt. Indonesia`s foreign exchange in April 2020 rose to USD 127.880 billion from the previous month amounting to USD 120.968.88 billion. The increase in foreign exchange reserves is mainly influenced by the government`s global publishing. April inflation rose slightly 0.08% mom (+2.67% yoy), the inflation was lower when compared to inflation in the previous year`s Ramadan. Changes in consumption patterns occurred in Ramadan this year due to the implementation of PSBB policies from the government to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in Indonesia. The low inflation this month also indicates a decrease in demand for goods and services which results in the low purchasing power of the people. PMI Indonesia Markit Manufacturing down to the level of 27.5 in April 2020 from the previous month which was at the level of 45.3. This happened because of the PSBB policy carried out by the government to reduce the spread of COVID-19 which had an impact on the closing of the factories and decreased demand. The arrival of foreign tourists to Indonesia in March dropped sharply by 64.11% yoy to 470.9 thousand towards its lowest level throughout the recording. This happened due to restrictions on access made by countries in the world due to the spread of COVID-19. From the price of commodity, US crude oil (WTI) experienced a price increase of 5% in trading on Friday 8 May 2020 to USD 24.74/ barrel, Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude oil closed up 5.1% to the level of USD 30.97/ barrel. This happens because US oil producers cut production by decreasing the number of drilling rigs to fall to its lowest record. The price of gold fell 0.5% at the end of trading on Friday, May 8, 2020 to USD 1,700/ ounce after reaching its highest level on April 27, 2020. Japanese Economy Japanese household expenditure fell 6% yoy in March 2020 following a decline of 0.3% yoy in the previous month. This is the sixth decline in a row due to consumers reducing their consumption in response to the impact of the spread of COVID-19.Jibun Bank Japan Composite PMI fell to the level of 25.8 in April 2020 after the previous month was at level 36.2. Meanwhile, the Japanese Bank Japan Services PMI is at level 21.5 in April 2020 after the previous month of 33.8. European economy European retail trade fell 9.2% yoy in March 2020, this was the biggest decline since the recording which began in 1996. Produle Price Index (PPI) European region in March 2020 dropped 1.5% Mom after the previous month experienced a decrease of 0.7% Mom. This is a decrease in the price of the sharpest producers since November 2008. China`s economy China`s trade balance surplus widened to USD 45.34 billion in April 2020 from the same month the previous year amounting to USD 13.02 billion. Meanwhile, for a trade surplus with the US also widened to USD 22.9 billion from the previous month of 15.3 billion. Exports increased by 3.5% yoy to USD 200.28 billion in April 2020 Meanwhile for imports dropped 14.2% yoy to 154.94 billion, this was the largest decline in imports since January 2016. China`s foreign exchange fell up to USD 3.091 trillion in the month April 2020 from the previous USD 3.06 trillion, above market expectations of USD 3.05 trillion. In the previous month China`s foreign exchange reserves fell to its lowest level since October 2018 but began to gradually rise after the government revoked the lock down policy in the country. Indicator Caixin China General PMI rose to 47.6 in April 2020 from the previous month of 47.6. Meanwhile, Caixin China General Services rose to the level of 44.4 in April 2020 after the previous month was at the level of 43.0. The US trade balance deficit widened to USD 44.4 billion in March 2020 from the previous month of USD 39.8 billion. Exports fell 9.6% to USD 187.7 billion Meanwhile for imports down 6.2% to USD 232.2 billion. The trade balance deficit with China narrowed to USD 11.83 billion from the previous USD 16 billion. Decrease in Exports-Imports are the lowest since November 2016, this has occurred due to the spread of COVID-19 which made several countries carry out access restrictions. Consumer credit in the US fell by USD 12.1 billion in March 2020 after the previous month increased by USD by USD by USD 20 billion, this was the first decline since August 2011. The US labor data, termination of employment carried out by companies in the US increased to 671,129 in April 2020 and was the highest number since the first recording in January 1993. The total number of termination of employment in April is much higher by 202% when compared to the previous month of 222,288. The amount is 15 times higher than the termination of employment in April 2019 of 40,023 cases. Some layoffs are carried out by companies in the entertainment and service sectors. Meanwhile, the number of US citizens who filled unemployment allowances in the last week of May 2, 2020 was 3,169 claims. The unemployment level in the US increased by 14.7% in April 2020, the crisis due to the Covid-19 that hit the US made many US citizens lose their jobs. The number of unemployed people rose from 15.9 million to 23.1 million. Source: Danareksa Research Institute