Week I October 2019 Latest Publisher and Economic Peristia coloring regional and domestic market movements in the past week. Dri summarizes a number of main points that are considered to affect market performance, as follows the week ago released the early data of the manufacturing indicators of a number of countries adorn the development of the global economy. The development of early indicators PMI indicates the contraction of manufacturing activity. In addition, market participants look at the development of US-China trade negotiations, US domestic political risks, and other geopolitics. The result is that the sale pressure still suppresses market performance. From the Japanese economy, the Dini-Swibun Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing PMI PMI in September dropped to the level of 48.9 from the previous month, 49.3. The contraction of Japanese manufacturing activities was triggered by a decrease in new orders and export demand as a result of the US-China trade war. The price of goods and services at the Japanese consumer level tends to be flat (+0.0 % Mom) in August 2019, following the 0.1 % mom increase in Buian before. Annually, the inflation rate slows down from 0.5% yoy to 0.3% yoy (vs 0.6% yoy consensus). The price of food groups goes up slower, while for non -moving non -food groups. This inflation rate is the lowest in the last 6 months, which triggers speculation of the Bank of Japan economic stimulus in the coming period. Boj maintains the current monetary policy. From the Chinese economy, after the decline , 20%. As for the 5 -year credit interest, it remains 4.85%. During the January-August 2019 period, industrial profit decreased 1.7% yoy to CNY 4.01 trillion, like the previous month. From Europe, Early Indicators of Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI in September 2019 decreased to 45.6 from the level 47.0 in the previous month, and lower than market consensus, 47.3. EU manufacturing activities are still contracting, along with the decline in new orders, industrial production outputs, and export sales. From the US economy, the last release of Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that the US economy Q2 2019 grew 2.3% yoy, slowing compared to the growth of Q1 2019 (++ 2.7% yoy) and Q2 2018 (+3.2% yoy). Compared to Q2 2018, the growth of household spending (+2.6% yoy), investment (+3.9% yoy), and imports (+2.6% yoy) slowed down. Government spending grew higher (+2.3% yoy), while exports declined (-1.7% yoy). In August 2019, the value of exports and US imports reached USD 137.8 billion (+0.1 %) and USD 210.6 billion (+0.3 %). The increase in imports that exceed exports carried a trade balance deficit widened to USD 72.8 billion (vs. deficit of USD 77.3 billion in market projections) from USD 72.5 billion in the previous month. 0 in September from the previous month 50.3. The improvement of US manufacturing activities is supported by the increase in new orders received by the manufacturer, and production output. While export demand is still weakening. New house sales in the US in August 2019 grew 7.1 % Mom to 713 thousand units (SA Annual Rate), following a correction 5% Mom. Median new home prices grew 2.2 % yoy to USD 328.4 thousand, with an average selling price that jumped 6.1 % to USD 404.2 thousand. A house sales contract in August recorded a growing 2.5% yoy, following a 0.3% decline in the previous month. The increasing contract of selling house stock is driven by a declined mortgage rate. In the US labor sector, the claim of US unemployment allowance (as of 21 Sept 2019) increased 3 thousand applications to 213 thousand applications. The average 4 weekly tends to be stable at the level of 212 thousand applications, a slight decrease 750 applications from the previous week. In the US consumer sector, the personal income and expenditure of the community grew 0.4% Mom and 0.1% in August 2019, following the respective increases 0.1% Mom and 0.5% Mom in the previous month. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index (PCE) Index (+0.0% Mom, and STABII (+1.4% yoy). Core PCE Index, outside the energy and food components grow 0.1% Mom (+1, 8% yoy). US consumer consumer beliefs published by The Conference Board in September falls to the level of 125.1 from the previous level 134.2. Household optimism of current economic conditions and its prospects in the short term, tends to decline. The escalation of trade war with China and the increase in imported goods tariffs began to affect consumers. In the industrial sector, long -lasting product orders received by manufacturers grew 0.2% Mom in August, slowing down from the previous month`s growth of 2% Mom. Demand was recorded to increase in metal products, and machines , while for aircraft products, motorized vehicles and spare parts tend to slow down. Then, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal charge of President Trump for the abuse of power. President Trump is considered Pressing the leader of Ukraine to investigate the family of prospective presidential candidates from Democrats, Joe Biden. Week II October 2019 Some economic indicators that need to be examined next week include • USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI, Factory Order, Durable Goods Order, Adp Employment Report, Unemployment Rate • Japan: Tankan Index, Jibun Bank PMI, Consumer Confidence Index • EU: Dflation, unemployment, retail sales • China: NBS Manufacturing PMI, Caixin PMI, Foreign Exchange Reserves • Indonesia: Lnflation, Markit PMI, Devisaall Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permissions of Danareksa Research Institute. Photo by Kiefer Likens On Unssplash