Week IV March 2020 Latest Publisher and Economic Events Color the movement of regional and domestic markets in the past week. Dri summarizes a number of main points deemed to affect market performance, as follows: The price of gold has increased sharply in the fourth week of March by 8%, the highest increase since December 2008. In March 27th trading the gold price touched the range of USD 1,624 per ounce , this is caused by investor behavior who chose Safe Heaven assets due to negative sentiment towards COVID-19. Brent crude oil prices in March 27, 2020 closed down 5.4% to USD 24.9/ barrel, the price decline that occurred almost touched its lowest level since the last 17 years, namely USD 24.5/ barrel. USD 21.5/ barrel, oil prices have fallen around 60% since the beginning of 2020 due to a decrease in demand due to the spread of Covid-19 and the existence of an over supply due to Saudi Arabia decided to give a discount on the price of crude oil production. Having a major discussion, namely how to overcome the outbreak of Covid-19 that has hit the countries in the world, some agreements from the trial are to increase prevention and handling in terms of health, coordination from the fiscal, monetary and financial sector is carried out together in accordance with the global order, maximizing the role of the IMF in terms of funding, and joint collective action to overcome the impact of COVID-19. Konomian Indonesia, the Minister of Finance has relaxed the 2020 State Budget from the initial assumption of 1.76% to GDP or Rp 307.2 trillion to 2.5% from GDP or around Rp 432.2 trillion so that the deficit projection in the budget reached Rp 125 trillion. This was carried out by the Ministry Finance to accommodate budget swelling due to handling COVID-19 in Indonesia. Data as of March 27, 2020 The number of cases in Indonesia still shows a surge, cases of people infected with COVID-19 increased from 893 to 1,046 scattered in several regions with the highest cases in DKI Jakarta (598 cases). Japanese economy Early indicator of the Japan Flash Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI fell to the level of 44.8 in March 2020. The sharp contraction in the Japanese manufacturing sector was the largest since April 2009, this was due to concerns about economic recession due to the covid-19 plague. The sharp decline occurred in the production output and the highest since the tsunami in 2011, while the demand for goods from home and abroad also experienced the highest decline in the last 11 years. Employment also decreased after in February had increased. Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash in March declined to level 32.7, this also showed sharp contractions in the service sector since September 2007. This was due to the decline in the performance of the tourism sector due to the spread of Covid-19 So that many big events were canceled. Output of new orders, orders for exports have fallen and employment has decreased sharply since October 2015.BOJ maintains its interest rates by -0.1% in a meeting on March 16, 2020, but decided to increase the growth rate of ETF purchases from JPY 6 trillion to JPY 12 trillion and Purchase of other risk assets to overcome the economic slowdown due to the spread of COVID-19. In addition BOJ also provides loan facilities to companies with a period of 1 year and an interest rate of 0%. European economy The business confidence index in Europe increased to the -0.04 level in February 2020 after the previous month was at the level -0.19. Meanwhile, indicators of consumer confidence in the European region down to 11.6 in March 2020, this is the lowest level since November 2014.IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI Euro Region fell to 44.8 in March 2020 after previously at the level of 49.2 in January 2020 The decline indicates a sharp contraction in the manufacturing sector of the European region since July 2012, where the production output has fallen sharply since April 2009. This decline occurred in the middle of the covid-19 outbreak which resulted in disruption of business activities. Meanwhile in the service sector, IHS Markit PMI for the Euro area descended to the deepest level of 28.4 in March 2020 after the previous month in 52.6. The distribution of COVID-19 outbreaks makes the service sector contracting, especially in the tourism industry, restaurants and travel agents. United States Economics (US) The US economy in the fourth quarter of 2019 grew stable by 2.1% of the number the same as growth in the third quarter of 2019. Meanwhile, the order of durable goods orders received by the manufacturer in February 2020 increased by 1.2% mom after the previous month increased by 0.1% mom. This is driven by an increase in the demand for transportation of USD of 3.8 billion around 4.6%to USD 87.0 billion, while for other durable goods orders decreased by 0.6%. Personal income in February 2020 in the US increased by 0.6%, this increase was equal to the month January 2020 and is above the 0.4%market consensus. Growth in personal income in the US is driven by increased compensation of workers and income of agricultural landowners. Meanwhile, the average personal spending in February increased by 0.2%, still the same as the increase in the previous month and in accordance with the market expectations of 0.3%. The PCE Index consumption price in the US increased 0.1% Mom in February 2020, the increase was the same as the previous month. The Fed on March 23 announced steps to encourage economic growth in the US which was threatened by the spread of Covid- 19 with the number of cases that continue to increase. Some of the steps taken by The Fed are providing financing loans of up to USD 300 billion to entrepreneurs, consumers, and the business sector. In addition the Fed also purchased securities to maintain the sustainability of the financial market, provide credit facilities to large entrepreneurs, and provide credit flow facilities to the city. PMI Markit Us Manufacturing down to the level of 49.2 in March 2020 from before at the level of 50.7 in in February 2020. Sharp contractions occur in new orders and production outputs, business trust in the US is at the lowest level due to the outbreak of COVID-19. Meanwhile, from the service sector, IHS Markit Us Services PMI fell sharply to the level of 39.1 in March 2020, this was the sharpest decline since 10 years ago. Domestic and foreign demand has weakened due to the distribution of Covid-19 In addition, the availability of jobs has also experienced the sharpest decline since October 2019. From the housing sector, new home sales in the US fell 4.4% to 765 thousand units in February 2020 When compared to the previous month of 8000 thousand units. The average price of new houses rose from USD 320,800 to USD 345,900, while the availability of new houses on the market was 319 thousand units. The number of people who submitted claims for unemployment allowances in the US increased by 3.2 million on March 21, 2020, this was the highest number since the year 1967 and above market expectations of 1 million claims. The highest claims come from the service and food sector, besides other sectors such as health, entertainment, transportation and manufacturing also recorded an increase in unemployment. Layoffs and unemployment are one of the economic impacts of the spread of COVID-19 in the US because of the many business sectors that are eventually closed. Sunday I April 2020 Source: Danareksa Research Institute Photo by Worksite Ltd. On Unssplash