Week IV November 2019 Latest Publications and Economic Events Color the movement of regional and domestic markets in the past week. Dri summarizes a number of main points that are considered to affect market performance, as follows negative centers dominate the movement of domestic and regional exchanges last week. Monetary acts a number of central banks in the Asian region are supporting the performance of the market index, amid the issue of the uncertainty of the trade war. The statements of US and Chinese officials are contradictory, creating confusion in the market. Even the concern of market participants increased, after the US senate passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Bill, which was protested by China as an US attempt to interfere in Chinese internal affairs and supported the actions of demonstrators in Hong Kong. The uncertainty of the completion of trade negotiations between the two countries has increased. The settlement of negotiations is predicted to continue in 2020, as China`s strong desires so that the US removes import tariffs that are currently in force. From domestic, Bank Indonesia maintains the reference-7DRR interest policy as expected by market players. In the Bank Indonesia RDG 20-21 November 2019, the monetary authority holds the benchmark interest at the level of 5.0 percent, with deposit facility and lending facility interest respectively at 4.25 percent and 5.75 percent. In the midst of slowing global economy, this policy is taken with consideration of the controlled inflation rate, maintained external stability, as well as in an effort to boost domestic economic growth. Bank Indonesia also reduces the minimum compulsory demand deposit (GWM) for conventional commercial banks and sharia commercial banks/ Sharia Business Unit of 50 bps, respectively to 5.5 percent and 4.0 percent, with the average GWM respectively of 3.0 percent, and is effective on January 2, 2020. This policy is taken to increase the availability of banking liquidity In increasing financing and supporting economic growth. From the Japanese economy, the value of exports in October 2019 decreased 9.2% yoy to JPY 6.58 trillion, while imports weakened 14.8% yoy to JPY 6.56 trillion. The impact of the trade war and sluggish domestic demand carrying a JPY Surplus trade balance of 17.3 billion from the JPY deficit of 124.8 billion in the previous month. Early Dikator Manufacturing-Japan Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI in November slightly rose to the level of 48.6 from the final level October 48, 4. The contraction of Japanese manufacturing activities in 7 consecutive months occurs in line with the decline 5 bps from 2.55 percent to 2.50 percent on November 18, 2019. This decline became the first in 4 years, with the aim of pushing back the Chinese economy. This follows the decision of PBOC which previously cut the interest of the Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) loan. In the investment sector, direct foreign investment (FDI) that entered China grew 6.6% yoy to CNY 752.41 billion for the 2019 Jan-Octing period. From the European economy, PMI flash indicators for European regions, which still survive below level 50 . PMI Manufacturing November slightly rose from the level of 45.9 to level 46.6. The momentum of European manufacturing growth declined due to the weak order received by the business. From the US economy, the latest US-CEI economic indicators published by The Conference Board stable at the 106.5 level in October Buian, following a 0.1% increase in the previous buian. While the economic prospect indicators decreased 0.1% to the level of 111.7, after weakening 0.2% in the September and August 2019. This indicates the potential for increasingly slowing US economic growth, as the sluggish new order received by the manufacturer, and Weekly average income per hour of labor. Nahab Housing Market Index in November Buian slightly declined to the level of 70 from the previous level, 71 and market expectations at the same level. Optimism of US housing developers is relatively maintained, supported by expectations of house sales that increased in the coming 6 months. US Housing Sector recorded an increase in October 2019. The construction of a new housing starts to grow 3.8% Mom reached 1,314 million units (sa annual Rate), following a decline of 7.9% in the previous buian. While for building permits (building permits) increased 5.0% Mom to 1,461 million units, or the highest in 12 years. Annually, the construction of new houses and building permits grew 8.5% and 14.1%, encouraged the dug of demand and construction of new homes. Sales of US house stock in October 2019 grew 1.9% Mom to 5.46 million units (SA Annual Rate), supported by a strong growth of land demand by 2.1%. Median home prices in the US increased 6.2% yoy to USD 270,900. FOMC Notes October 2019 gave a signal that The Fed would not cut the FFR benchmark interest rate in the near future. The Fed will continue to monitor the development of a number of main indicators such as labor market conditions, inflationary pressures and the development of global economic and financial conditions. In the manufacturing sector, the Flash IHS Markit US Manufacturing Indicator of PMI November rises to the level of 52.2 from the final level of October 51, 3. The expansion of the US manufacturing sector is supported by the soaring growth in production output. The claim of weekly unemployment allowances (as of November 16, 2019) is relatively stable as many as 227 thousand applications. The average 4 weekly increased 3,500 applications to 221 thousand applications. This condition shows the solid US labor market. Week I December 2019 Some economic indicators that need to be examined next week include* USA: GDP Q3 2019 (2nd estimate), Personal Income and Outlays, PCE Price Index, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Home Sales , Pending Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI * Japan: industrial output, retail sales, consumer confidence, jibun bank japan pmi * China: NBS PMI, Caixin PMI, Industrial Profit * EU: Business Climate, Consumer Confidence, Markit PMI, Inflation * Indonesia: Danareksa Consumer Confidence, Markit PMI Source: Danareksa Research Institute (DRI), PT Danareksa (Persero) Photo by Christian Wiediger On Unssplash