Week I February 2020 Latest Publisher and Economic Events Color the movement of regional and domestic markets in the past week. Dri summarizes a number of main points that are considered to affect market performance, as follows: New cases of corona virus infections in China still haunt the performance of regional exchanges. The Chinese stock exchange even plummeted more than 7 percent in the first day of trading after an extension of the LMLEK New Year holidays. Regarding the Corona outbreak, until February 9, 2020 the Chinese National Health Commission reported a case of infection to 40,171 cases, with 908 people died. The planned operation of the manufacturer in a number of Chinese areas on February 10, 2020, is likely to be postponed until March 1 and must obtain local government permission. Temporary market recovery is seen after the government`s aggressive efforts and Chinese monetary authorities overcome health problems and support the domestic economy. The Chinese government cuts the import duty of hundreds of imported goods from the US. This policy is related to the implementation of the first phase of trade agreement and domestic recovery efforts from the impact of the Corona virus. 10% product import import duty is reduced to 5% and a tariff of 5% to 2.5% for imports of goods from the US valued at USD 75 billion starting February 14, 2020. Meanwhile, the people`s bank of China (PBOC) cut 7D-Reverse Repo interest to become 2.4% of 2.5% and 14D tenor from 2.65% to 2.55%. PBOC also injects liquidity into the money market up to CNY 1.2 trillion. The Central Bank still maintains accommodative policies, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining the reference interest rates at the level of 0.75 percent at the January 2020 meeting. The Reserve Bank of India maintains interest The Repo Rate reference was at 5.15 percent at the February 2020 meeting. This policy was aimed at encouraging domestic economic growth and the achievement of inflation targets. The Philippine central bank reduced the reference interest rate Repo by 25 bps to 3.75 percent at the meeting of February 6, 2020, or in line with market predictions. Bank of Thailand cut the benchmark interest rate of 25 bps to 1 percent, or the lowest level since May 2000. The Indonesian Economy Domestic, BPS released the inflation rate in January 2020, using the new basic year 2018. The monthly inflation rate reached 0.39% Mom or 2, 68% yoy annually. The increase in the main price is driven by a combination of increased price of food groups (+1.62% mom), as well as decreased transportation costs (- 0.89% mom). Indonesian economy Q4 2019 grows 4.97% yoy, slowing compared to Q4 2018 (++ 5.18% yoy) and Q3 2019 (+5.02% yoy). In terms of expenditure, all GDP components slow down compared to the same quarter the previous year. Household expenditure, investment and government spending each grew 4.97%, 4.06%, and 0.48%, while exports (-0.39%) and imports (-8.05%) contract. In more detail in the performance of the 5 largest sectors in the economy, the manufacturing sector (+3.66% yoy), trade (+4.24% yoy), and mining (+0.94% yoy) grows slowing down, while the agricultural sector (+4 , 26% yoy) and construction (+5.79% yoy) accelerated. For FY 2019, the Indonesian economy grew 5.02%, slowing compared to 2018 by 5.17%, or the lowest in the last 3 years. Indonesia`s foreign exchange reserve as of January 2020 reached USD 131.7 billion, an increase from December by USD 129, 2 billion. The position of foreign exchange reserves is equivalent to the financing of 7.8 months of imports or 7.5 months of imports and payment of government foreign debt, and is above the international adequacy standards of around 3 months imports. The increase in foreign exchange reserves in January 2020 was mainly driven by the government`s global issuance of global bonds, oil and gas foreign exchange revenues, and other foreign exchange revenues. European European Economy, Indicator of IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI January 2020 rose to the level of 47.9 from the level of 46.3 in December 2019. New orders, production and purchase decreases at a slower level. Retail sales of the European region in December 2019 recorded a decrease in 1.6% Mom, from the previous capable of growing 0.8% Mom. Annually, consumer retail spending slows from 2.3% yoy to 1.3% yoy. Sales decreased on food, beverage, and fuel products. The Chinekari Economy of the Chinese economy, PMI Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Indicators fell to the level of 51.1 in January 2020 from the level of 51.5 in the previous month. The slowing of the Chinese manufacturing sector was driven by the growth of new output and new orders, while export sales declined. Meanwhile, Caixin China General Services PMI in January 2020 fell to the level of 51.8 from the previous month 52.5. The expansion of the Chinese service sector is moving slowing down with the sluggish domestic demand, while labor absorption tends to be stagnant. The United States economy (US) in terms of the US economy, PMI ISM Manufacturing indicators in January 2020 rose to the level of 50.9 from December 47.8, and exceeded market expectations at the level of 48.5. This development shows the first manufacturing expansion signal in the last 6 months, encouraged to increase new orders, export orders, and manufacturer`s production. Export value (+0.8%) and imports (+2.7%} as in December 2019 increased each each reached USD 209.6 billion and USD 258.5 billion. The shot on imports above exports made a trade deficit widened to USD 48.9 billion from USD 43.7 billion. A new service received 1.2% Mom) in Buian December 2019, following the 1.2% Mom decline in the previous month. This increase was the highest since August 2018, driven by the demand for transportation equipment, military aircraft, motorized vehicles and spare parts. In the US labor sector , ADP National Employment Report in January 2020 shows the absorption of non -agricultural private labor reaching 291 thousand positions from 199 thousand positions in December 2019. This labor absorption is the largest since May 2015. The medium scale business records the highest employment absorption (+128 thousand) followed by small businesses (+94 thousand) and large -scale businesses (+69 thousand). The industrial and service sectors each absorbed 54 thousand and 237 thousand labor positions. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the absorption of non -agricultural labor (nonfarm payrolls) increased by 225 thousand positions (Eks: +160 thousand) in January 2020, out of 147 thousand positions in December 2019. The biggest increase came from the construction, health services, transportation, transportation services , and warehousing. In the same period, the average per hour revenue earned by labor grew 0.2% mom from 0.1% mom in the previous bullan. The US unemployment rate in January 2020 slightly rose from 3.5% to 3.6%. The claim of weekly unemployment allowance (as of February 1, 2020) dropped 15 thousand applications to 202 thousand applications, or the lowest level since April 2019. 3 thousand applications to 211,750 applications, which indicate the increasingly solid labor market. Week II February 2020 Several economic indicators that need to be observed next week, among others USA: inflation rate, claims of weekly unemployment allowances, retail sales, industrial output Japan: GDP Q4 2019, Industrial Output China: inflation rate, producer price level EU: Industrial Output, Trade Balance, GDP Q4 2019 Indonesia: Trade Balance, Automotive Sales Source: Danareksa Research Institute Photo by Jérémy Stenuit on Unssplash