Week II November 2019 Latest Publisher and Economic Events Color the movement of regional and domestic markets in the past week. Dri summarizes a number of main points that are considered to affect market performance, as follows: Publication of the 2019 GDP Q3 Data and PMI Manufacturing Indicators A number of countries are the main sentiment of the market driving last week. The positive signal of the US-China trade agreement also coloring the direction of trade in the Regional Exchange. From domestic, the Indonesian economy Q3 2019 grew 5.02% yoy, slowing compared to Q2 2019 (+5.05% yoy) and Q3 2018 (+5.17% yoy). This development is influenced by domestic demand that is maintained and the performance of the external sector is slightly improved, although global demand and global commodity prices are declining. Compared to Q3 2018, all GDP components on the expenditure side slow down. Household consumption and investment grow solidly each by 5.01% yoy and 4.21% yoy. Government spending grows 0.98% yoy, and exports have improved slightly by 0.02% yoy. The position of Indonesia`s foreign exchange reserves as of October 2019 reached USD 126.7 billion, higher than September 2019 in the amount of USD 124.3 billion. October 2019 foreign exchange reserve position is equivalent to a financing of 7.4 months of imports or 7.1 months of imports and payment of government foreign debt, and is above the international adequacy standards of around 3 imports. Increased foreign exchange reserves are sourced from the government`s global publishing, receipt of oil and gas foreign exchange and other foreign exchange. As it is known that the government in October 2019 issued a global bond worth USD 1 billion and Euro worth 1 billion euro. From the China Economy, the People`s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the MLF Loans-Term Loans (Medium-Term Lending Facility) 5 BPS to 3.25 percent in November 2019, or the first decline since the beginning of 2016. China`s monthly inflation rate in Buian October 2019 reached 0.9% Mom, flat like the previous Buian. The price of food ingredients still recorded a high increase, which brought annual inflation to be 3.8% yoy, from 3.0% yoy in the previous month. Chinese export and import value in October scored a higher value than market expectations. Exports and imports each down 0.9% yoy and 6.4% yoy, which carried the October trade balance surplus widened to USD 42.81 billion (vs. USD 40.83 billion consensus), from the September surplus of USD 39.7 billion From the European economy, GDP Europe Q3 2019 grew 1.1% yoy, slowing down from Q2 2019 (+1.2% yoy), or recorded to be the lowest growth since Q4 2013. European Commission trimmed the projection of European economic growth from 1.2 % to 1.1% in 2019, following the uncertainty of trade conflict, geopolitical risk, weakening the manufacturing sector and Brexit. For 2020 and 2021, the European economy is projected to grow only 1.2%, lower than the previous projection of 1.4%. Retail sales of European regions grew 0.1%Mom in September 2019, lower than the previous buian of 0, 6%, and in accordance with market expectations. The increase in sales occurred in the group of pharmaceutical products and media drugs, as well as online shopping and the internet. While the sale of groups of computer products, books, textiles, clothing and footwear has decreased. Manufacturing Indicator-LHS European Union Markit in October 2019 improved slightly to the level of 45.9 from the level of 45.7 in the previous month. The contraction of the EU manufacturing sector still occurs following the decline in new orders, production outputs, and export sales. From the US economy, the claims of weekly unemployment allowances (as of November 2, 2019) decreased 8 thousand applications to 211 thousand applications, the lowest level in 4 weeks. The average 4 weekly reached 215,250 applications, slightly increased 250 applications from the previous week. Non-Manufacturing-LSM Indicators Nonfacturing PMI increased to 54.7 in October 2019 (vs. Level 53.5 Consensus) from the level of 52.6 in the previous month. Expansion of the Service Sector is encouraged the acceleration of new order growth, labor absorption and business activities. Orders received by US manufacturers (Factory Orders) decreased 0.6% Mom (vs -0.5% Mom expectations) in September 2019, after the month Previously also dropped 0.1% Mom. Weak demand occurs in groups of transportation equipment products such as aircraft, as well as computers and electronic groups. Export value (-0.9% Mom) and US imports (-1.7% Mom) in September decreased each to USD 206 level billion and USD 258.4 billion. This development brought a trade deficit to USD 52.5 billion, narrowed from the previous buian of USD 55 billion. This trade deficit is the lowest in 5 months. Some economic indicators that need to be observed next week include: inflation rate, industrial output, retail sales Japan: GDP Q3 2019, Core Machinery Orders EU: Industrial Output, Foreign Trade Balance China: Industrial output, retail sales, fixed asset investment Indonesia: Source Trade Balance: Danareksa Research Institute