Dr: OPEC+ agrees to reduce oil production 9.7 million barrels/ day during May - June 2020

14 April 2020

Research

Week II April 2020 Latest Publisher and Economic Events Color the movement of regional and domestic markets in the past week. Dri summarizes a number of main points deemed to affect market performance, as follows: OPEC+ held an emergency meeting on Sunday (April 12, 2020), at the meeting OPEC+ agreed to reduce oil production by 9.7 million barrels/ day during May - June 2020, This was done in response to reducing global demand due to Pandemi Covid-19. World oil prices increased slightly after on March 18 at its lowest point, the price of Brent oil rose to USD 32.25 and WTI rose to USD 26.08. 15, 930 at the end of trading April 9, 2020. Some things that encourage the strengthening of the rupiah exchange rate, namely the intervention from Bank Indonesia which produced results. Besides that, market point sentiments came from the issuance of Sovereign Bond Indonesia with a maximum tenor of 50 years and cooperation agreed upon by Bank Indonesia in the form of a repurchase agreement (repo line) with the fed as.ekonomi Indonesia From domestic, the position of Indonesia`s foreign exchange reserves in March 2020 amounted to USD 121.0 billion, lower when compared to the previous month amounting to USD 130.4 billion. The decline in foreign exchange reserves in March was influenced by the government`s foreign debt payment and the need for stabilizing the rupiah exchange rate amid the global market panic due to the massive distribution of Covid-19 worldwide. The panic that occurred in the global market has caused the flow of capital out of Indonesia and increases pressure on the rupiah, especially in the second and third week of March. The Indonesian bank conducted a repurchase agreement (Repo Line) with The Fed As worth USD 60 billion, cooperation was ready If at any time used to increase the Dólar US liquidity needs, although it does not increase foreign exchange reserves. Indonesia issued a sovereign bond of USD 4.3 billion in 3 forms of state securities (SBN), namely the RI1030 series (Tenor 10.5y), RI1050 (tenor 30 (tenor 30 , 5y), and RI0470 (Tenor 50y). The third series (RI0470) is the longest debt letter that has been issued by the Indonesian government. Throughout February-March Indonesia was the first country in Asia to issue global bonds in the midst of Pandemi Cobid-19, the government`s global publishing was carried out to keep financing safe and increase foreign exchange reserves. Japanese economy Japanese current current transaction balance surplus widened to JPY 3.17 trillion in February compared to the same month the previous year who experienced a surplus of JPY 2.61 trillion. Chinese economy Chinese consumer price index in March 2020 dropped 1.20% Mom compared to the previous month which increased by 0.8% Mom. The first decline occurred since June 2019. The economy of the United States (US) PPI (Producer Price Index) in the US in March down 0.2 % after the previous month decreased by 0.6 %. The highest decline comes from the price of goods by 1%and is the highest decline since September 2015. While the increase occurred at the service price (0.2%) and the price of the producer (0.2%). , 9 billion in the same month the previous year. Expenditures dropped 5.3% to USD 355.1 while revenue rose 3.5% to USD 236.8 billion. Consumer price index in March in the US fell 0.4% Mom after the previous month increased 0.1% Mom. This is the biggest monthly decline since January 2015, the biggest decline comes from the price of gasoline (-10.5 & mom) while the price increase occurs in food and medical care. IBD/TIPP US Economic Optimism Index drops 6.2 points from the previous month to 48.7 in April 2020, this is the first decline since September 2016. This was driven by the government`s efforts in handling Pandemi Covid-19 which caused more than 10 million people to lose their jobs. The Fed announced a new stimulus package on April 9, 2020 amounting to USD 2.3 trillion and will be given in the form of loans. The purpose of the latest stimulus from The Fed is to support the economy for households and companies affected by Covid-19 and improve the ability of the government in the state during the pandemic period. Compared to the previous month available 7,012 million job vacancies. Meanwhile, the number of unemployment claims in the fourth week of March dropped to 6.606 million from the previous highest record of 6.867 million. However, when viewed from the average movement of 4 weeks there is still an increase in the claim of US unemployment allowances by 4, 266 million. * USA: Export - Import (Yoy), Export - Import Prices, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Housing Market Index, Initial Jobless Claim, Housing Start, Building Perments * Japan: Industrial Production, Balance of Trade * China: Trade Balance, Export - Import (Yoy), FDI (YTD), Retail Sales, Industrial Production, GDP Growth Q1 * Eu: Industrial Production, Balance of Trade * Indonesia: Trade Balance, Interest Rate Decisions Source: Danareksa Research Institute Photo by Said Alamri On Unssplash