DRI: At the end of April 2020, the rupiah became the exchange rate with the highest reinforcement in Asia

06 May 2020

Research

Sunday V April 2020 Latest Publisher and Economic Events Color the movement of regional and domestic markets in the past week. Dri summarized a number of main points considered to affect market performance as follows: On April 30, 2020, the rupiah exchange rate closed up 2.70% to the level of Rp 14,882 after the previous trading was at the level of Rp 15,295. Rupiah is the exchange rate with the highest strengthening in the Asian region. In addition, the JCI also closed up 3.26% to the level of 4,716,403 on April 30, 2020 with a total transaction value of Rp 10.8 trillion. Sentiment came from contractions in US economic growth of -4.8% in Q1 2020. Indonesian economy Danareksa`s consumer confidence index down to level 80.22 after the previous month was at level 101, on two IKK indicators also decreased. The highest decrease occurred in the Present Situations Index by 36.9% to 54.5 Meanwhile for the Expectation Index dropped by 11.1% to 99.5. In April consumers began to worry about the threat of layoffs, disease outbreaks (distribution of Covid-19) and decreased production. From the commodity price of crude oil prices at the end of trading on April 30, 2020, it strengthened to USD 17.44/ barrel after recording a negative price in trading last week. Meanwhile, Brent oil also strengthened to USD 25.33/ barrel. The price of gold at the end of trading on April 30, 2020 increased to USD 1,715.48 because it remained a safe haven asset chosen by investors in the midst of the uncertainty of the global economy due to Covid-19. The unemployment level in Japan in March 2020 rose 2.5% to 1.72 is the highest amount in a period of one year. Meanwhile, the number of jobs dropped 0.2% to 67.32 million people with a decline in jobs-to applicants by 1.39% and was the lowest since the last three years. the time in the last six months. Decreased sales occur in general goods, fabrics, machine equipment, and fuel. Meanwhile sales for drugs and toiletries have increased. On the other hand, Japanese industry production also decreased sharply by 3.7% Mom in March 2020 after the previous month the decline was only around 0.3% Mom. This is the second contraction in the production sector since November 2019, the decline occurred due to the spread of COVID-19 so as to interfere with the production chain and international trade. Index of consumer confidence in Japan fell to 21.6 in April 2020 after the previous month was at level 30.9, this was a level lowest since 1982. The number of housing starts (housing starts) has fallen 7.6% yoy in March 2020. Meanwhile, for the Japanese construction sector, 14.30% yoy in March 2020 compared to the same month in the previous year. BOJ took a policy for Maintaining an interest rate of -0.1%, at the April meeting BOJ also took a policy to remove restrictions on the purchase of government bonds so that 10y yields will remain 0% and increase the company`s debt purchase to 20 trillion JPY from the previous amount of 7 trillion JPY. China Economy NBS Manufacturing PMI China fell to 50.8 in April 2020 from previously at the level of 52.0. Meanwhile, NBS Non -Manufacturing PMI increased to 53.2 in April 2020 from the previous month which was at the level of 52.3. This happened because the Chinese government began to reopen economic activity after the application of the lock down ended. European economy European Economic Growth Falls 3.8% QoQ in Q1 2020. This is the sharpest contraction since 1995 due to the distribution of Covid-19 so that the government has taken a policy for lock down that stops business activities and the economy in the European region. % yoy in April 2020 from the previous month which was at 0.7% yoy. This is the lowest inflation rate since September 2016, the slowing of inflation in Europe is driven by COVID-19th and decline in world oil prices due to price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. European Economic sentiment indicators fell 27.2 points to 67.0 in April 2020, this is The lowest level since March 2009. Meanwhile, industrial sentiment indicators in April also decreased by 19.2 points to -30.4, this was also the lowest level since March 2009. The indicator of sentiment in the service sector also decreased by 32.7 points to -35.0 at In April 2020, under market expectations of -27.0. The distribution of Covid-19 is the main cause of decline in some of these indicators that hit the reconciliation of the European region. The unemployment level increased to 7.4% in March 2020 from 7.3% in the previous month, so that the number of unemployment increased 197 thousand to 12, 156 million people. The number of unemployment allowances also increased due to the closing of the business and the cessation of economic activity in the midst of the distribution of Covid-19. ECB adopted a policy to maintain its benchmark interest rates but reduce interest rates on emergency loan programs for banks (Tltro II) and offer a series of long-term refinancing operations (Peltro) to increase banking liquidity. United States Economics (US) From the US economy, US economic growth contracted to -4.8% yoy in Q1 2020, this was the deepest contraction since Q4 2008. The massive distribution of Covid -19 in the US made the country implementing the lock down policy so that the economy was disrupted. Unemployment increased sharply, household consumption fell to its worst condition in 1980, a sharp decline in exports and sharp contractions in investment. On April 29 the Fed took a policy to maintain interest rates in the range of 0 - 0.25% and reiterate again its commitment to make economic policy as a tool to reduce the impact of the spread of COVID-19. Meanwhile, on April 30 the Fed took a policy to expand the reach of loans (main street lending programs) for small and medium businesses in the US affected by Covid-19, one of which was by lowering the loan of Mínimum to USD 500,000. In the US dropped 16.3% yoy in March 2020 after the previous month rose 9.3% yoy. This is the largest annual decline since April 2011 amid the crisis due to Covid-19. Personal revenue in the US fell 2.0% in March 2020 Setalh recorded an increase of 6.0% in the previous month. This is the biggest decline in revenue since January 2013 the effect of the massive spread of COBID-19 in the US. Meanwhile, personal expenditure fell 7.5% in March 2020 after the previous month rose 0.2%. Institute