Week III March 2020 Latest Publisher and Economic Events Color the movement of regional and domestic markets in the past week. Dri summarizes a number of main points deemed to affect market performance, as follows: as of March 20, 2020 the rupiah exchange rate weakens to the level of Rp. 15,960 per dólar axles, this is the weakest position of the rupiah exchange rate since 1998. In the third week of March the exchange rate The rupiah weakened by 8 % when compared to the previous week which was at Rp 14,788 per Dólar US. In addition, the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) in the third week of March touched the level of 4,194.94 with a sharp decline of 14.52%. At the close of March 20, 2020 JCI rebounds by 2% and became the first increase in five trading days. Negative sentiment of weakening the rupiah exchange rate and sharp decline in the JCI is related to the spread of COVID-19 worldwide and even Indonesia. The distribution of COVID-19 in Indonesia is increasingly worried about the Ministry of Health Data as of March 20, 2020 as many as 309 positive cases spread across several regions, with the most cases in DKI Jakarta. Indonesian Economics Indonesia`s trade balance experienced a surplus of USD 2.34 billion in February 2020 when compared to the previous month which experienced a deficit of USD 0.86 billion. The surplus in February was the first surplus since October 2019 and was the largest since 2011. The surplus in February was driven by an increase in exports (+2.24% Mom) and a sharp decline in imports (-18.7% Mom). The distribution of Covid-19 in China resulted in imports from China down by 17.75% in January-February 2020. Bank Indonesia stipulated to trim the BI7DRR benchmark interest rate of 25 bps to 4.50%, after the previous month Bank Indonesia cut BI7DRR by 25 bps to the level 4.75%. In addition, Bank Indonesia also uses interest rates for deposit facility and lending facility respectively 25 bps to 3.75% and 5.25%. This decline in interest rates occurred amid the decline in the rupiah exchange rate due to the outbreak of Covid-19. The decline /2020 concerning National Economic Stimulus as a countercyclical policy the impact of the spread of the 2019 Corona Virus Desease. The stimulus is intended for debtors in the MSME and Non-UMKM sectors affected by COVID-19. Japanese economy The Japanese trade surplus widened to JPY 1.11 trillion in February 2020, higher than February 2019 amounting to JPY 0.33 trillion. This trading surplus is the first time since October 2019. The Central Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to keep interest rates at the level of -0.1% at the March 2020 emergency meeting, but increased the annual pace of the purchase of EFT by JPY 12 trillion from the previous 6 Trillion to overcome the economic slowdown due to the spread of COVID-19. Annual, Japanese inflation in February 2020 unexpectedly dropped to 0.4% yoy from 0.7% yoy in the previous month, this was the lowest inflation since October 2019. The production of the Japanese industrial sector in January 2020 increased by 1.0% Mom but still lower when compared to the previous month`s increase which reached 1.2% Mom. An increase occurs in motor vehicle production (5.6%), food and tobacco (4.3%), and manufacturing (1.8%). While the sharp decline occurs in production machines (-3.5%) and electric machines (-3%). European economy The European trade balance experienced a surplus of EUR 1.3 billion in January 2020 from the previous month of EUR 0.6 billion. The surplus was driven by an increase in exports by 0.2% to EUR 184 billion while imports decreased by 0.2% to EUR 182.7 billion. European inflation rates on an annual basis decreased by 1.2% yoy when compared to the previous month by 1.4% yoy, The decline is at an energy price of 0.3%while the price increase occurs in the non -energy component (0.5%) and service (1.6%). Chinese economy PBOC maintains a stable credit rate at 4.05% in March 2020, this is different from the market consensus that predicts there will be a re-decrease in loan interest rates to inject the business sector of the COVID-19 spread. The steps taken by PBOC are different from other central banks that are largely pruning the benchmark interest rate to face the economic slowdown due to Covid-19. Chinese retail sales dropped sharply by 20.5% yoy in January-February 2020, the sharpest decline since the survey began at in 1993. The decline occurred in almost all components with the largest decline in jewelry (-41.1%), cars (-37%), furniture (-33.5%), garment (-30.9%), building materials (-30.5%), and Household appliances (-30%). This is caused by consumers who are afraid to go to the crowds due to the distribution of Covid-19. The production of the Chinese industry sector has been contracted sharply by 13.5% yoy in January-February 2020, this is the first decline in industrial output since 1990 due to the spread of Covid -19 which causes business disruption and transportation restrictions. The decline occurred in all industries, the highest decline in the transportation equipment industry (-28.2%), general equipment (-28.2%), textiles (-27.2%) and machinery (-24.7%). United States Economy (US) The production of the US industrial sector experienced an increase of 0.6% Mom in February 2020 after the previous month decreased by 0.5% Mom. The highest increase occurred in utilities output by 7.1%, while an increase in manufacturing activity by 0.1% was driven by an increase in production in motor vehicles and spare parts while for the production of civilian aircraft dropped sharply. While for mining products decreased by 1.5%. US retail sales decreased 0.5% mom in February 2020 after the previous month increased by 0.6% mom in January 2020. The decline that occurred was the highest since December 2018, this was occurs because consumers reduce their purchases on vehicles and spare parts, furniture, electronics, building materials, health products and clothing. From the US housing sector, indicators of the sentiment of housing developers-nahb housing market index down to the level of 72 in March 2020 from the level of 74 in the month January. Optimism of US developers slightly eroded along with the expectations of house sales that weakened in the next 6 months this was seen from its sub -index which decreased to 75 out ) In February 2020 when compared to January 2020 which reached 1,550 million units and became the highest over the past 13 years. Meanwhile, the construction of new housing in the US fell 1.5% Mom to 1.599 million in February 2020, sales for single-family which became the largest segment increased 6.07% to 1.072 million while the segment for multi-family fell sharply by 17% to 0.508 million. Sales Houses in the US increased 6.5% Mom in February 2020 to 5.77 million units, this is the highest level since February 2007 and is above market expectations of 5.5 million. From the labor sector the number of US jobs rose 411,000 to 6,963 million In January 2020, the biggest increase occurred in the fields of finance and insurance (+65,000), government sector (+38,000), and the mining sector (+8,000). The highest increase occurred in southern US. On the other hand, unemployment allowances increased by 70 thousand to be 281 thousand on March 14, 2020, this was the highest level since September 22, 2017 which reached 299 thousand. The driving factor for the increase in the unemployment allowance claims, namely the existence of COVID-19 outbreaks in the US. Week IV March 2020 Several economic indicators that need to be observed next week, among others * USA: Markit Composite PMI Flash, Markit Service PMI Flash, New Home Sales, Durable & Non Durable Goods Orders, GDP Growth Q4, Personal Spending, Personal Income * Japan: Jibun Bank PMI Flash, Jibun Bank Service PMI, Boj Meeting * Eu: Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash, Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence * Indonesia: Danareksa Consumer Confidence Survey Source: Daransareksa Research Institute (DRI). Photo by Uray Zulfikar On Unssplash