Week III February 2020 Latest Publisher and Economic Events Color the movement of regional and domestic markets in the past week. Dri summarizes a number of main points that are considered to affect market performance, as follows: Oil prices decrease amid increasing concerns about low global demand after the risk of spreading COVID-19. US crude oil dropped 0.5% to USD 53.59 per barrel while Brent dropped 0.1% to USD 59.02 per barrel. The price of gold rose 0.5% in the midst of fears of the global economic impact due to Covid-19, the increase was the highest since February 2013 (in 7 years). The Chinese Health Commission reports the latest data on the Corona epidemic case as of February 21, 2020 reaching 76,288 cases, with fatalities reaching 2,345 people. Indonesian economy From domestic, RDG Bank Indonesia in February 2020 decided to reduce the 7DRR benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 4.75% with interest rates deposit facilities and lending facility down to the level of 4.00% and 5.50%. Accommodative monetary policy is taken by considering the controlled prospect of inflation, safe external stability, as well as a step to maintain the momentum of domestic economic growth amid the outbreak of global economic stagnation due to Covid-19. The value of Indonesia`s foreign trade is decreasing. January exports decreased by -7.2% Mom to USD 13.4 billion, while imports declined by -1.6% Mom to USD 14.3 billion. This causes a trade balance deficit to widen from USD 61.7 million to USD 864.2 million. Japanese economy From the Japanese economy, the Japanese economy declined 1.6% QoQ in Q4 in 2019, following a growth of 0.1% QoQ in the previous quarter. Household consumption recorded decreased after the increase in sales tax, while investment is still weak. In the manufacturing sector, industrial output grew 1.2% Mom in Buian December 2019 after previously dropping by 1.0% Mom. The increase in output occurs in engines, general engines, and electronic parts. Japanese export value dropped 2.6% yoy to JPY 5.43 trillion in January 2020, while imports weakened 3.6% yoy to JPY 6.74 trillion. Decreased exports occur in transportation equipment products, generator machines, electric machines and manufacturing goods. This development brought a deficit in the Japanese foreign trade balance narrowed to JPY 1.31 trillion from JPY 1.42 trillion in January 2019. The Japanese inflation rate in January 2020 tends to remain after the previous month rose 0.1% Mom. Annual inflation rate slows down from 0.8% yoy to 0.7% yoy. The price of the food component still records a significant increase (+1.2% yoy). Early Dikator Manufacturing of the Japan Manufacturing Bank Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to the level of 47.6 in February 2020 compared to the previous month which was at the level of 48.8. Sharp contractions in the Japanese manufacturing sector were the highest since December 2012 amid the spread of Covid-19 and the pressure of the sales tax increase last October. New orders, exports and backlogs dropped sharply while employment growth slowed. Capital-Core Machinery Orders Spending Indicators decreased 12.5% ​​Mom in December 2019, after growing 18% Mom in the previous month. Japanese company`s capital expenditure has sloped with the increase in taxes and the uncertainty of the global economy. European economy From the European economy, the consumer price index of the European region dropped to the level of 105.44 (-0.7% Mom) after the previous buian was at the level of 106.14 (0.3% Mom). The price of food components rose while transportation has decreased. On the other hand the consumer confidence index of the European region increased to the level of -5.90 points from the previous month which was at the level of -7 points. Chinese economy From the Chinese economy, the China-PBOC monetary authority has again reduced the 1st year reference loan (1y loan prime rate) by 10 bps to 4.05%, and a 5-year tenor (Sy LPR) by 5 bps to 4.75%. This loose monetary policy is taken following the trimming of interest for medium term loans. United States Economics (US) In terms of the US economy, the January 2020 FOMC minutes indicated that the Fed would maintain its current monetary policy. FFR benchmark interest in the near future is expected to still survive at the level of 1.50 - 1, 75%. Although economic tension subsided after the peace agreement of the trade war between China and the US, the spread of Covid-19 became one of the new epidemics that needed to be aware of being a new risk 4 thousand applications to 210 thousand applications. The average 4 weekly increased one thousand applications to 206 thousand applications. From the US housing sector, the indicator of the Housing Development Sentiment-Nahb Housing Market Index fell to the level 74 in February 2020 from the level 75 in January. Optimism of US developers is slightly eroded as expectations of house sales that weaken in the next 6 months. On the other hand, building permits increased 9.2% Mom to 1.551 million units (SA Annual Rate) in January 2020 or exceeding market expectations of 1.45 million units. Approval for the construction of tread houses and apartments recorded the highest increase since September 2012. As for the construction of new houses in the same month experienced a decline The biggest US housing. The ATE Conference Board issued the current Economic Bickers and the prospects of the US economy in January 2020 respectively by 0.1% and 0.8% to 107.2 and 112.1. US economic prospects show an increase in line with the decline Home sales, house price index, personal income, personal spending. * Japan: Leading Economic Index, Unemployment, Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Jibun Bank PMI * China: Caixin PMI, Manufacturing PMI * Eu: Business Confidence, Markit Manufacturing PMI * Indonesia: Danareksa Consumer Confidence Index, Markit Manufacturing Pmisumber: Danareksa Research Institute Photo by Nathan Forbes On Unssplash