Sunday I March 2020 Latest Publisher and Economic Events Color the movement of regional and domestic markets in the past week. Dri summarizes a number of main points deemed to affect market performance, as follows: OPEC+ (OPEC member countries, Russia, Mexico, Azerbaijan and Kazakhtan) failed to reach the agreement of crude oil production to stabilize the price of oil that fell due to the spread of the Covid-19 outbreak in several countries world. Saudi Arabia announced a large discount - the amount of the official selling price of oil produced and an increase in production from 9.7 million barrels/day to 10 million barrels/day. The price of crude oil futures fell sharply by 30% at the beginning of trading on March 9, 2020 and since the beginning of 2020 dropped more than 28.63 USD/BBL or more than 45% since the beginning of 2020. The price of Brent oil fell sharply by 31% to the level of USD 31.02 Per barrel at the beginning of trading on March 9, 2020, this was the biggest decline since February 2016. On the other hand the price of gold increased by 1.6% to the level of USD 1,698 in trading on March 9, 2020, investors switched to investments that have low risk levels (assets safe haven) due to the drop in crude oil prices. Indonesian economy In addition to the monetary stimulus issued by the government through trimming BL7DRR of 25 BPS the government also issued a fiscal stimulus in the form of six incentives worth Rp. 10.3 trillion to prevent the slowdown in the domestic economy due to the spread of COVID-19. The stimulus was launched in several industrial sectors affected by Covid-19 such as the tourism, transportation, housing and property sectors. Lnflation in February 2020 was at a level of 0.28% Mom (+2.98% yoy) lower when compared to the previous month of 0.39% Mom (++ 2.68% yoy). The reflection of February is driven by an increase in prices in the food, beverage and tobacco components. Japanese economy Japan`s economic growth contracted 1.8% QoQ in the fourth quarter of December 2019, this was the sharpest contraction since the second quarter of 2014. The decline occurred in private consumption by 2.8% due to an increase in sales tax 4.6% is the biggest since Q1 in 2009. The Japanese consumer confidence loss of 38.4 BPS in the February 2020. The decline occurred in each indicator, namely labor perception, income growth, the ability of the durable goods and the livelihood indicator. Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI fell at the level of 46.9 in February 2020 from the previous month of 51.0, the sharpest decline recorded since April 2014. European economy IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI Europe in the Euro Area increased at the level of 49.2 in February 2020 when compared to the previous month of 47.9. This is the first increase since 13 years experiencing contractions in the activities of the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, IHS Markit Eurozone Services PMI in February 2020 slightly strengthened at the level of 52.6 when compared to the previous month at the level of 52.5. Retail sales in European regions rose 0.6% in January 2020 when compared to the previous month which dropped by -1.1%. An increase occurs in the sale of food, beverage and tobacco products (0.7% vs -1.2%), non -food products (0.2% vs -1.1%) and automotive fuel sales (1.9% vs -0.1%). Chinese economy PMI Caixin Manufacturing Indicator contracted sharply to the level of 40.3 in February after the previous month at level 51.1, this was the lowest level since April 2004. The slowing of the Chinese manufacturing sector was driven by a sharp decline in new order requests, output of production results and the number of labor due to company Extending the closure of the factory as a result of the spread of COVID-19. Meanwhile, Caixin China General Services PMI in February 2020 contracted to the level of 26.5 in February 2020 when compared to the previous month which was still at the level of 51.8. Factory closure and travel restrictions from and to China due to the outbreak of Covid-19 are the main causes. Covid-19 of the Chinese economy. The export value fell 17.2 % (yoy) to USD 292.49 billion while imports shrink by 4 % (yoy) to USD 25.37 billion. On the other hand the US and China trade surplus declined compared to USD 25.37 billion, much lower when compared to the same period in the previous year amounting to USD 42.16 billion. United States Economy (US) The Fed in his emergency meeting on March 3, 2020 cut the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) of 50 bps to 1% -1.25%, one of the considerations was to continue to spread the Covid -19 which resulted in a decline in economic activity. The monetary policy taken by the Fed was the first emergency policy since the 2008 financial crisis. In addition, the Fed also cut the IOER (Interest on Excess Revers Rate) by 50 bps to 1.1% after the previous month increased 5 bps. Export value (-0.4 %) and import (-1.6%) US decreased in January 2020. The decline in US exports was triggered by a decrease in capital goods and industrial materials and export increases occur in motorized vehicles and their parts. The greater decline in imports made the trade balance deficit narrowed to USD 45.3 billion in January 2020 from USD 48.6 billion. PMI Manufacturing Markit Ship slightly decreased to the level of 50.7 in February 2020 when compared to the previous month at the 50.8 level. Meanwhile, ISM Manufacturing PMI February fell to the level of 50.1 from previously at the level of 50.9 in January 2020. The US workforce shows the absorption of non -agricultural labor (nonfarm payrolls) increased 273 thousand positions in February 2020, the largest since May 2018. The biggest increase came from the health service sector, food and beverage services, government, construction, professional and financial activities. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in the US fell from 3.6% to 3.5% in February 2020, the number of unemployment decreased by 105 thousand to 5.79 million while work increased by 45 thousand to 158.76 million. Week II March 2020 Several economic indicators that need to be observed next week, among others * USA: inflation rate, export-import prices * Japan: GDP Q4, Machinery Orders * China: inflation rate, fdi (yoy), house price index, retail sales * EU: GDP Q4, ECB Interest Rate Decision, * Indonesia: Trade Balance Source: Danareksa Research Institute Photo by Ziad Al Halabi On Unssplash