DRI: World Crude Oil Prices (WTI) May USD -40.32/ barrel, the lowest since NYMEX opened in 1983.

27 April 2020

Research

Week IV April 2020 Latest Published and Economic Events Color the movement of regional and domestic markets in the past week. Dri summarizes a number of main points that are considered to affect market performance, as follows: From the price of commodities, the price of the world crude oil (WTI) of the May contract touched the level below USD 0 at the end of trading on April 21, 2020, amounting to USD -40.32/ barrel, This is the first time in history and is the lowest point since Nymex made the first trading in 1983. This was due to abundant supply but global demand fell due to Pandemi Covid-19. But at the end of trading on April 24, 2020 the price of world crude oil for WTI increased almost 3% to USD 16.94/ barrel while Brent increased 0.5% to USD 21.44/ barrel, this was related to the oil -producing countries that would begin Reduce production. Meanwhile, the price of gold fell 0.3% at the end of trading on April 24, 2020 to USD 1,726, after being at the highest price of USD 1,838 on April 23, 2020. Japan`s economy From the Japanese economy, the Japanese trade balance surplus dropped to JPY 4.95 billion in March 2020 from JPY 517.29 billion in the previous month. Exports fell 11.7% yoy to JPY 6.36 trillion while imports dropped 5% yoy to JPY 6.35 trillion. Early Indicator of Japanese Manufacturing (Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI) in April down to 43.7 after the previous month at 44.8. Sharp contractions in the Japanese manufacturing sector are the highest since April 2009, this is due to the increasingly wide distribution of Covid-19 in Japan, thus encouraging the government to take a lockdown policy. Meanwhile, the April JIBUN Bank Japan Services in April dropped to its lowest level, 22.8 after the previous month was at level 33.8. The decline occurred exceeding the financial and tsunami crisis in 2011. Annual, Japanese inflation in March 2020 is stable at the level of 0.4% yoy, this is the lowest inflation since October 2009 due to Covid-19 which continues to hamper consumption. The highest price decline is in the transportation and communication component (0.7%) as the effect of a decrease in world oil prices while an increase occurs in the food component (1.4%). European economy From the European economy, the European trade balance surplus widened to € 23 billion from the previous month of € 18.5 billion, this happened because of an increase in exports by 1.6% while imports fell 1.0%. In addition, the trade surplus with the US also increased to € 10.3 billion from the previous month of € 8.9 billion, while the trade balance deficit with China narrowed to € 8.3 billion from € 9.7 billion. For the European region showed an increase of 74.7 points to 25.2 in April 2020. From the survey results showed 53.8% of analysts estimated an increase in the European economy. Meanwhile, the indicator of consumer confidence in the European region fell 11.1 points to -22.7 in April 2020 and is the lowest since March 2009. The European region leader on April 23, 2020 agreed to change the long -term budget and prepare for the economic recovery fund of the distribution of COVID -19 . The additional amount of recovery funds to be prepared is around € 1-1.5 trillion, previously EU has disbursed funds of € 3.3 trillion to finance health, small businesses and benefits for people affected by Covid-19.IHS Markit Manufacturing in the European region April 2020 dropped to 33.6 after the previous month was at the level of 44.5. The decline in the manufacturing sector is the highest since February 2009, this is due to the policies taken by the government to suppress the distribution of Covid-19 which results in the temporary closure of the business sector and restrictions on community activities. Meanwhile, IHS Markit Eurozone Services PMI in March dropped to 11.7 after the previous month at the level of 23.8, this was the sharpest contraction of the service sector since the last two decades. United States Economy (US) IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI US April fell to 36.9 after the previous month was at level 48.5. This shows a sharp contraction in the US manufacturing sector in the past eleven years driven by the cancellation and delay of domestic demand due to the spread of COVID-19. IHS Markit Composite PMI also showed a decline in April 2020 to the level of 27.4 after being previously at level 40.9, this indicates the sharp decline 27.0, this is a decline in the sharpest service sector since October 2009. This is due to the lockdown policy taken by the government to suppress the spread of Covid-19 so that the business sector is temporarily closed. 2020 dropped by 14.4% Mom after the previous month increased by 1.1% Mom, this was the sharpest decline since August 2014. The decline in the Old Taham goods orders was caused by the distribution of Covid-19 which resulted in the closure of the business and shopping sectors. The highest decline comes from transportation equipment by 41%, especially aircraft orders and spare parts that dropped 296%. Existing home sales in the US fell 8.5% Mom in March 2020 to 5.27 million units, this is the biggest decline Since November 2015 and is under market expectations of 5.3 million units. Sales fell in almost all US regions due to the distribution of Covid-19 which affect the economy of the community. Meanwhile, the sale of new home sales in March dropped 15.4% to 627 thousand units compared to the previous month of 741 thousand units. This is the lowest sales figure since May 2019 and the largest decline in the housing sector since July 2013. Meanwhile, the average price of new houses rose from USD 321,400 to USD 310,600. So that in the last five weeks the total claims of the suspension allowance of 26 million or equivalent to 16% of the total workforce in the US. This means that as many as 22 million jobs available since September 2010 just disappeared within three months due to the spread of COVID-19. Sunday v April 2020 Several economic indicators that need to be observed next week include: S&P Home Price, Consumer Confidence, GDP Q1 2020, Pending Home Sales, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Initial Jobless Claim, Employment Costjepang: Boj Interest: Decision, Unemployment Rate, Yoy Retail Sales, Industrial Production Yoy, Consumer Confidence, Housing Startschina: NBS Manufacturing PM EU: Business Confidence, Economic Sentiment, GDP Q1 2020, Inflation Rate, Unemployment Rate, ECB Interest Rate Decision Indonesia: Danareksa Consumer Confidences Source: Danareksa Research InstituteMage: This gas station was somewhere in neskuupstadur in Iceland Photo by Mahkeo On Unssplash