Danareksa Research Institute (DRI) has released the latest research related to Outlook GDP Indonesia with the title "GDP Outlook 4th Quarter of 2020: Sluggish Recovery" compiled by Moekti P. Sojachmoen, Muhammad Ikbal Iskandar, and Sella F. Anindita. Key points in this research: Outlook Summarydri estimates that GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 reached 0.70% qoq or -2.94% yoy. Annually, GDP is estimated to have contracted -2.33% in 2020. The weak economic recovery reflects the sluggish household consumption amid the realization of a relatively high social protection program that causes government spending to grow significantly. In addition, investment, export, and import show limited growth in the last quarter of 2020. Household consumption has not yet recovered to consume weak households amid the realization of a high government social protection program. Weak household consumption is driven by the limited activity of the general public due to the enactment of large-scale social distance restrictions (PSBB) in early October 2020 followed by the transition of PSBB until the end of December 2020 due to the high daily cases of Covid-19. The weakening can be seen from the sale of vehicles that slow down compared to the previous period, contraction of consumption credit growth, and weak retail sales. Government expenditure rose with the disbursement of the government`s economic recovery program to increase sharply driven by the realization of the national economic recovery program which reached Rp579.78 trillion or 83.40% of the target of Rp695.2 trillion. Investment growth is more sluggish investment due to the enactment of PSBB and the weakening of investor optimism in the midst of the rise of positive COVID-19 cases in Indonesia. Cement sales only grew 4.23% QoQ, much slower than the previous period which reached 37.84% QoQ. In addition, investment credit growth experienced a contraction of -2.02% QTQ due to weak new credit demand. Subsequent Events Meanwhile, DRI`s view of GDP in the short term is as follows: Economic recovery which is predicted to be slow in the next few periods is strongly influenced by the following factors: To download the full research, please click the link below: DRI-GDP Outlook_Q4`20 - Sluggish recoveryphoto by adli wahid on unssplash

DRI – GDP Outlook_Q4’20 – Sluggish RecoveryAdli WahidUnsplash